Tariffs are just the tip of the spear

South Africa is staring down the barrel of a 30% tariff threat from the US. Automotive, citrus, wine and mineral exporters — pillars of our economy — face being priced out of their most profitable market. But the real danger is not the tariffs; it’s that we have been caught unprepared in a world where diplomacy and trade have merged into a hard-nosed contest of alignment, influence and strategic intent. 

President Ramaphosa says talks with the US are ongoing and he remains optimistic. But optimism is not a strategy. We must be brutally honest: this is more than a trade dispute. 

The proposed US sanctions bill not only threatens Agoa, it calls for a sweeping review of the entire US—South Africa relationship and scrutiny of ANC leaders. This is the sharp end of what happens when foreign policy is not aligned with economic interests.

In a world where global powers are choosing sides, we have continued to hedge. Yet we rely heavily on the US and EU for trade and investment, while failing to build truly reciprocal alternatives in the Global South. That’s a dangerous contradiction. The question is not whether Agoa can be saved; it’s whether we have a strategy for what comes after it — because the status quo has expired. 

The first step is a shift in posture — from crisis management to scenario planning. We urgently need a national market diversification task team, mandated to assess sector-specific exposure to US tariffs, including: 

• Identifying high-potential markets under the African Continental Free Trade Area, Middle East and Asia-Pacific; and
• Developing action plans to support affected industries with financial relief, alternative buyer access and regulatory support. 

Such a team must be business-led, in close partnership with government. Private sector exporters, farmers and manufacturers know the pinch points and where the real opportunities lie. 

If the tariffs hit, the fallout will be immediate. Companies will lose orders, workers may lose jobs, and tight supply chains will buckle. We cannot afford policy paralysis. Government should immediately consider: 

• Bridging finance and export credit guarantees through the IDC and ECIC for companies hit by sudden order cancellations; 
• Zero-rating logistics or customs fees for redirected goods headed to new destinations; and
• Emergency training programmes to help SMEs understand technical standards, packaging and logistics in alternative markets. 

This is not just a matter of economic relief, it is about demonstrating that government has its exporters’ backs in a time of global upheaval.

In today’s world, success is not just about how much we sell; it’s about who we sell to, how resilient those relationships are, and how well they support domestic jobs, innovation and value addition

South Africa maintains more than 50 diplomatic missions abroad, but few are assessed for economic performance. We must now realign our footprint with strategic intent. That means shutting or consolidating underperforming embassies and redeploying trade attachés to high-growth zones, such as West Africa, Southeast Asia and Latin America.

It should also include: 

• Recruiting commercial envoys from industry, with mandates and KPIs linked to export promotion and investment attraction; and
• Creating public — private trade hubs abroad, modelled after Germany’s AHKs, combining state authority and business agility. 

Let’s stop thinking of trade as a government function alone. It’s a national project, where the front lines must be occupied by those who understand the real cost of lost deals and missed buyers. 

At present, there is too little integration between our political alignments and economic objectives. We cannot expect global markets to treat us favourably if our actions suggest uncertainty about where we stand.

That does not mean becoming a servant of any global power. It means articulating our non-aligned stance, backed by values of constitutionalism, openness and developmental ambition. And — crucially — aligning our actions to that narrative. 

A step forward would be to revive a presidential business advisory forum on trade strategy, bringing together business leaders, organised labour and policymakers. The forum should focus on fast-tracking market access strategies, including: 

• Co-ordinating business delegations to important countries; and
• Co-developing incentives for first-mover exporters. 

It’s time to replace broad-brush trade ambitions with surgical execution.

While government must fix policy incoherence, business too must show strategic initiative. We need: 

• Sector associations to conduct detailed risk exposure mapping to US tariffs and alternative market potential; 
• Business schools and think-tanks to provide rapid scenario planning and geoeconomic analysis; and
• Private investment in joint export platforms, brand campaigns and trade intelligence for new frontiers. 

Let’s also tap our global diaspora, those South African professionals and entrepreneurs embedded in foreign markets. These informal ambassadors can be powerful allies in building demand for our goods and services. 

Our export strategy has traditionally been volume-driven. But in today’s world, success is not just about how much we sell; it’s about who we sell to, how resilient those relationships are, and how well they support domestic jobs, innovation and value addition. 

Let’s reimagine a model that rewards diversity of markets, resilience of supply chains and alignment between economic diplomacy and trade growth. 

August 1 may become a defining date in our economic history. But whether it marks the start of decline or the pivot to strategic renewal depends entirely on what we do next. 

South Africa has navigated tougher storms. But this one demands more than moral appeals or bureaucratic reshuffling. It demands clarity, urgency and unity of purpose. It demands that we treat trade diplomacy as a frontline of national survival. 

The tariffs are just the tip of the spear. What follows is a contest for relevance, resilience and strategic foresight. 

Will we rise to it? Ex Africa semper aliquid novi! 

• Ravi Pillay is a business school lecturer at the Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS), a former economic diplomat to Switzerland and a multi-stakeholder partnership advocate. He writes in his personal capacity.

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